Below is my breakdown of the first Republican Debate of the 2016 cycle (the main debate). I'll start with some general observations, before going into each of the candidates.
General Observations
I had never seen a debate with so many candidates and moderators. Going in, thought it would be choatic, but for the most part it wasn't. Also, given that the debate was hosted by Fox News, I thought there woud be a lot more softball questions. However, the questions were mostly hard-hitting. It did seem at times that the moderators were baiting the candidates into attacking each other, though I suppose that is par for the course in a political debate. The crowd was quite lively, much more so than the crowds are during the general election debates.
Candidate Break Down
Donald Trump
- I personally don't care for Donald Trump, nor his style. However, leaving that out, the reasons that he shot to the top of the polls were on full display tonight. He was outspoken, controversial and didn't come across as a typical politician. He was making news right from the start, when he refused to pledge to support the Republican nominee and/or run as a third party candidate. His answers on the issues were mostly soundbites and common talking points of his. I don't expect him to falter at all in the polls as a result of this debate.
Jeb Bush
- Bush was largely unimpressive tonight. However, that may be in part to his somewhat reserved personality, as compared to some of the more outspoken candidates. His answers on the issues were nothing of real note, though he did stand out for not taking the bait to attack other candidates when given the opportunity by the moderators. He called Marco Rubio a friend and didn't hit back at Trump when reminded of Trump's attacks on George W. Bush. Bush came in the debate as the establishment favorite in the eyes of many, and in my view did nothing to remove himself from that position.
Scott Walker
- Walker was absent for large stretches of the debate, even when accounting for the large field of candidates. He, like Jeb Bush, stood out as more reserved than some of the other candidates. Walker's performance was largely unremarkable, and he did nothing to distance himself from the pack of candidates.
Mike Huckabee
- Huckabee, as he has in races past, established himself as the most socially conservative candidate. He took strongly conservative positions, as he always has, and stood by them. Made some slightly odd comments (mentioning that prostitutes and pimps don't pay into social security), but overall appealed to his base and seemed to lay the groundwork for him being the religious right's favorite candidate going forward.
Ben Carson
- Seemed to be ignored at times by the moderators (even joking about it at one point). Was a little shaky at first, but got his footing later on in the debate with his answers on race relations and his experience. He made is name hitting out at Obama for healthcare, but he hardly seemed to mention that tonight. He is an interesting candidate, as he might be able to appeal to both moderates and conservatives. Overall, he did well for his first political debate, and will be interesting to watch going forward.
Chris Christie
- Christie showed some of the fiery personality that has won him both fans and foes. He and Rand Paul went back and forth over the issue of surveillance, with Christie showing off what may become one of his talking points going forward. On the surveillance issue, Christie invoked 9/11 several times when describing his position. Christie will likely use this going forward to burnish his national security credentials. He didn't make any waves apart from this exchange. For better or worse, Christie cemented his reputation as one who is argumentative and combative at times.
Rand Paul
- Called himself a "Different kind of Republican" and certainly showed that he is. Hit Chris Christie hard on the issue of surveillance, though it is debatable who GOP voters will view as the winner in that exchange. Did not get a great deal of airtime, but made good use of the time he had.
Marco Rubio
- From the beginning, Rubio spoke quite eloquently about the issues, and more than any other candidate, made emotional connections with each question. Rubio hit Hilary Clinton early on in the debate, and promised to make the GOP the "party of the future" if he is the nominee. Rubio maybe be best positioned to oust Trump at the top of the polls, as he can appeal to both the moderate and conservative wings of the party. I would not be surprised at all if Rubio rises in the polls as a result of his performance tonight.
John Kasich
- Like Rubio, Kasich also spoke quite eloquently about a variety of issues, and managed to inject emotion into his answers. Kasich came in as a somewhat unknown, and actually barely qualified for the top-tier of candidates. Kasich also took some positions outside of the republican mainstream, most notably his appeal for mental health reform in the prison system. Kasich came in as one of the lesser known candidates, but may well soon see a rise in the polls.
Ted Cruz
- Cruz certainly showed some of the fire that has caught the attention of voters early on. In his closing statement, he hit hard at the Obama administration and really got the audience going with his string of attacks. He will surely run to the right of Trump, Bush, Walker, and some of the other candidates, and might get some serious traction with this strategy. If he can establish himself as the more conservative option to the top contenders, he can make some serious waves in the primaries.
